Pricing engine v0.1 — live

Price anything.
In milliseconds.

HFP is a high-frequency pricing engine for prediction markets. From championship finals to a youth match no data provider covers — we generate the price. We are the source, not a reseller.

⚽ UCL FINAL — HOME WIN 0.548 ▲ 🗳️ US SENATE RACE #14 0.312 ▼ ⚽ IL YOUTH LEAGUE U19 0.575 ▲ 📈 BTC > $150K BY DEC 0.441 ▲ 🎬 BOX OFFICE #1 OPENING 0.226 ▼ 🎾 QUALIFIER MATCH R2 0.689 ▲ 🏀 EUROLEAGUE TOTAL O/U 0.503 ▼ ⚽ UCL FINAL — HOME WIN 0.548 ▲ 🗳️ US SENATE RACE #14 0.312 ▼ ⚽ IL YOUTH LEAGUE U19 0.575 ▲ 📈 BTC > $150K BY DEC 0.441 ▲ 🎬 BOX OFFICE #1 OPENING 0.226 ▼ 🎾 QUALIFIER MATCH R2 0.689 ▲ 🏀 EUROLEAGUE TOTAL O/U 0.503 ▼
The core idea

Pricing ≠ Prediction

A market maker doesn't need to predict the future. It needs to never lose to someone who knows more. HFP is a risk engine wrapped around a probability engine — and that changes everything.

📐

Spread is the defense

Every price ships with a confidence interval. When the model is uncertain, the spread widens automatically — the price of ignorance is priced in, never ignored.

🌊

Flow is a feed

In markets with no data feed, the orders themselves are the sensor. Unusual one-sided size moves our price instantly — no human approval needed. Even a quote request is signal.

🌍

Long tail, solved

An Israeli youth match has no feed — but it has structure. Hierarchical Bayesian priors let every exotic event inherit knowledge from thousands of similar ones.

Technology

Three layers. One price.

Everything heavy is precomputed offline. Online, a real-world event becomes a new price in a single O(1) lookup.

L1

Prior Engine

Opening probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian models, rating systems, and reference markets. Works even with zero direct data — with honestly declared uncertainty.

L2

Live State Engine

Per-event state machines with precomputed impact tables. A dangerous free kick by an elite taker moves the price differently than a corner — instantly, at minute 5 or minute 85.

L3

Risk & Quote Engine

Dynamic spreads, full liquidity curves, quote-on-size, adverse-selection monitoring, per-market and per-family exposure caps, kill switches. Fail-safe by default.

The product

One API. A full liquidity curve.

Don't ask "what's the price?" Ask "what's the price for my size?" HFP returns a complete depth schedule — price as a function of size, for both sides.

request
# Any event. Even one no data provider covers.
POST /v1/quote-on-size
{
  "market_id": "il-youth-u19-042",
  "side": "yes",
  "size_usd": 100000
}
response — 3ms
{
  "avg_price": 0.531,
  "fillable_usd": 100000,
  "curve": [
    {"price": 0.51, "size": 50000},
    {"price": 0.53, "size": 30000},
    {"price": 0.56, "size": 20000}
  ],
  "confidence": 0.78,
  "recommended_max_loss": 12400
}
10,000+
concurrent markets per node
<1ms
quote computation, in-memory
long-tail coverage via hierarchical priors
0
human approvals needed to defend a price
Use cases

Built for the people who move markets

HFP doesn't provide liquidity. It powers the people who do.

🏦

Market makers

Seed quotes for markets with no consensus. Get a defensible opening price plus recommended risk limits per market.

🔮

Prediction platforms

Let users create any market — and have a price ready in milliseconds. Long-tail events stop being unquotable.

📊

Quant traders

An independent, origin-source price to benchmark against. Closing-line-quality signals across thousands of events.

🎲

Operators & books

In-play pricing that reacts to every corner, card, and free kick — with adverse-flow protection built into the quote itself.

Early access

Be the source, not the follower.

The pricing API is in private beta. Structural endpoints are live today — request access for full feed integration.

api@hfpricing.com